We are a month past the introduction of the iPhone 16 and it’s time to review some surprising results for this year’s device.
First, what if they threw an iPhone launch and it was not immediately followed by massive supply cuts (because no one buys iPhones anymore, too popular)? In a new post on X, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo provides a variety of updates on iPhone 16 shipments:
iPhone 16 shipment updates
1. Assembly orders almost remain unchanged. Suppliers had been asked to continue producing two Pro models during China’s National Day holiday, indicating that demand for the Pro models has generally met expectations so far.
2. Some component orders…
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) October 9, 2024
You’re a loose cannon, Ming-Chi Kuo! You go off the book one more time and I’ll have your badge!
The biggest takeaway is that sales numbers appear to be matching expectations, with no supply chain cutbacks anticipated.
Sir, this is not how we do things. Please refer to the script. It goes: 1) iPhone introduction, 2) massive supply cuts. What is this steady demand nonsense? The Macalope will not have it. Not on his watch. The line must be drawn here! This far! No farther! Etc. etc.
Well, at least one group is not rushing out to buy the iPhone 16: those reserved and fiscally conservative teens, according to a report by Piper Sandler.
The Macalope has been known to ride a pollercoaster or two so he knows a bit about the accuracy of these things. Let’s see if you can spot where these conclusions get ahead of themselves.
About 22 percent of respondents said they intend to upgrade this fall or winter, which is a slight drop from the 23 percent who planned to upgrade to the iPhone 15 at the same time last year, and from the 24 percent for the iPhone 14 in 2022.
If you said “THOSE ARE ALL ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME NUMBER!” give yourself five points. It should be noted, however, that five is a meaningless number since it is awarded without reference to any scale and points cannot be exchanged for goods or services. Thank you for playing.
Piper Sandler’s sample size of 13,500 teens is pretty good but even so, a one percent decrease has got to be within the margin of error. (Piper Sandler does not note a margin of error in its press release.) Calling this a decline is a real stretch. It could be declining. It could also be going up. But it’s probably just staying level.
Now, every time teens come up two things happen: first, the Macalope flinches and says “Where?!” Terrifying. Second, the horny one thinks back to those heady days of 2013 when teens supposedly hated the iPhone and that was real bad news for Apple!
…in the eyes of today’s youth, massive popularity has watered down Apple’s coolness. “Teens are telling us Apple is done,” says Tina Wells of the youth marketing agency Buzz Marketing Group.
Mmm-hmm. Of course, those teens are now in their 20s so today’s teens are entirely new teens with that new teen smell which is sadly the same as the old teen smell which is to say body odor. Still, it wasn’t true then that teens didn’t like the iPhone and it’s not true now. Because while interest in the iPhone 16 might be a little lower (or not!), teens still love iPhones.
…87% of respondents said they own an iPhone. Additionally, 88% of teens expect their next smartphone to be an iPhone.
Piper Sandler’s survey has a history of leaving out lower-income teens so that might be skewed a bit, but the iPhone’s U.S. market share is usually somewhere in the mid-50 percent range, so 30 points above that is pretty striking, even if it’s just middle class and rich kids. If it weren’t for toddlers buying all those Android devices, Apple would have even higher market share.
Ultimately, it seems like the iPhone 16 is doing just fine. Which, the Macalope knows, huge surprise, right?
