Renders of the forthcoming iPhone 16 range
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has ordered fractionally fewer iPhone 16 models than the iPhone 15, going against the idea that Apple Intelligence will prompt upgrades.
One source arguing against a super cycle, though, has been Ming-Chi Kuo. In July 2024, he reported that suppliers such as Largan and TSMC had not seen an increase in orders that would indicate Apple expecting high sales.
Now in a new report, Kuo has doubled down on this and even said that Apple is expecting marginally fewer sales of the iPhone 16 range, at least initially.
iPhone 16 3Q244Q241Q25 EMS / iPhone 16 series production data update: shipment plans for 3Q24, 4Q24 and 1Q25, EMS order allocations, etchttps://t.co/quv9HKsWLf
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) September 9, 2024
In his full blog post, Kuo says that Apple has ordered between 88 million and 89 million of the iPhone 16 range, compared to approximately 91 million of the iPhone 15 models.
He further reports that, based on his forecasts, the breakdown of different iPhone 16 model sales is expected to be:
- iPhone 16 on 26%
- iPhone 16 Plus on 6%
- iPhone 16 Pro on 30%
- iPhone 16 Pro Max on 38%
Kuo says that it’s believed Apple has prepared between 15 million and 17 million iPhone 16 units for the pre-order demand. Over the whole of 3Q24, he predicts a growth of around 10% year over year compared to the iPhone 15 series.
However, this is not from increasing demand for the iPhone 16 Pro Max over its predecessor. It’s because the iPhone 15 Pro Max had issues with its tetraprism camera that delayed initial shipments of the device.
Overall, Kuo predicts that then 1Q25 iPhone 16 sales will decline dramatically, by 53% to 55%. He says that is partially the normal seasonal decline, but that it may be exacerbated by the launch of a new iPhone SE 4.
